Industry research group Smithers Pira expects the worldwide market for security printing to grow from $20.5 billion in 2010 to $36.6 billion in 2020, or a compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% for the 10-year period.The CAGR for 2015-2020 is predicted to be 5.9%, an indication of the growing pressure of digital technologies supplanting traditional print solutions.The group says two-thirds of the growth can be attributed to two end-use markets. Banknotes, the largest end-use segment, compensated for the declining rate of growth in terms of volume through higher prices charged for durable banknotes and premium security features; the tax stamps end-use segment is anticipating a surge in demand towards the very end of the decade when global and European track-and trace mandates are implemented.Inks and threads are expected to grow fastest with a CAGR of 8.0% and 8.6% respectively in the 2015-20 forecast period. The main driver for this growth is market demand for colour shift and movement in security features; holograms are adversely affected by this trend, resulting in a below market growth rate of 4.2%. The growth rate for biometrics will decrease substantially, as most identification programmes have shifted from mass enrolment to maintenance mode, and biometrics on mobile devices is not considered as security printing.In 2015, the banknote end-use market accounted for 40% of the global market for security printing. Personal ID follows with a 29% market share, having been boosted by large-scale implementations of ePassport and National ID projects. ?Figure 1: Global market for security printing by end-use segment: 2015 and 2020 (%) Source: Smithers PiraGrowth in the banknotes end-use market will increase slightly to a CAGR of 5.5% as higher prices commanded by durable banknotes offset diminished demand due to longer life and alternative payment methods. In addition, the use of bank cheques will continue to decline rapidly. The Personal ID end-use market has the largest decrease in growth, from an 8.7% CAGR over 2010-15 to a mere 2.6% CAGR for 2015-20. Even though National ID projects will still take place from 2015-20, the number is expected to be smaller than in the previous five years, and ePassport projects have shifted to maintenance mode. High growth is projected for the brand protection and stamps end-use markets as a result of various global, US and EU mandates."While the increased demand for tax stamps is a true market expansion, the market potential for banknotes is slowly becoming smaller," said Rudie Lion, author of the report. "Monetary policies and socioeconomic conditions partly explain this development, but even more value should be attributed to the threats and opportunities arising from the digital and mobile future."From a geographical perspective, Asia represented almost 50% of the global market for security printing in 2015. Any large-scale initiative in either of these countries or in the region as a whole disproportionately affects market assessments and forecasts. The market for security printing in Africa is forecasted to grow with a 9.6% CAGR – much stronger than the overall market rate. Reasons include population growth, increased spending and increased mobility, several ID programmes, and improvement of the financial infrastructure. These and other key trends in security printing are outlined in The Future of Global Security Printing Markets to 2020. The new report covers a wide range of technology categories and identifies cutting-edge developments that determine the future direction of the industry. The data and analysis will aid all stakeholders in the security printing industry in developing successful programs and strategies.Note:Smithers Pira will be exhibiting at SDW 2016, 10-12 May, London, UK. SDW is a world-leading conference and exhibition event providing a global showcase for next-generation human identity solutions, focusing on intrinsic document security and on the new cutting-edge secure infrastructure now required to produce and use these advanced documents in live situations.